It’s been a while since I wrote my last post. I’ve had some downtime and have decided to get started with a random series on this blog called bad statistics where I pull data that should have no correlation whatsoever, draw correlation for no reason and put it out there.

For my first post, I’ve picked a topic that I’ve debated with a few people over the past few years.
I’m from and in, Chennai, and we have a T20 cricket team called the Chennai Super Kings that plays in the IPL.
I’ve also been a Manchester United supporter for nearly 15 years now.

One of the debates I’ve gotten into is that if United and CSK play on the same day, how do the results affect the other teams. I’ve heard it from people, I’ve also bought into the idea and, have become a mouthpiece for the idea that whatever happens to CSK will happen to United, i.e, if CSK wins, United wins, if CSK loses, United loses.

So, to figure this out, I decided to get some data together.
The full project can be found on my Github.
The code isn’t super clean yet, I intend to close things out in a day or 2.
The README however is reasonably helpful and should get you up and running.

What the data says

I thought I might have to do a lot of number crunching, but, most of the time was actually spent in just getting the numbers.
I wanted to create something I could use for future projects with modifications and other people could use for other teams if they saw fit.

CSK and Man Utd have played on the same day 33 times.
CSK have played first 27 times.
Man Utd have played first 6 times.

Man Utd have won a total 14 of those 33 games.
They’ve lost 10 and drawn the other 9.
Their win percentage is 39%

CSK have won 19 of the 33 and lost 14.
CSKs win percentage is 57%

When CSK have played first, CSK have won 16/27 times (59%), Man Utd have won 6 and lost 6 of those, drawing 4, with a win percentage of 37%.

When CSK have lost on playing first, 11/27 times, Man Utd have won 4 and lost 3, drawing 4 (36%)

When CSK plays first, Man Utd have won 37% of their games.

When Man Utd have played first they have won 4/6 times(66%), and CSK have won 2 and lost 2 (50%) When Man Utd have drawn, 1 time, CSK has not lost
When Man Utd have lost, 1 time, CSK has not won

If Man Utd don’t lose, CSK wins 50% of the time
When Man Utd have drawn, 9 times, CSK has won 5 times, 8 of those times, CSK played first

But, here’s the best part:

  • CSK and Man Utd have won on the same date 8 times, 6 of those times, CSK played first
  • CSK and Man Utd have both lost on the same date 4 times, 3 of those times, CSK played first

This simple analysis has weirdly reinforced the idea that what happens to CSK will happen to United, except now, I expect it to happen 75% of the time.

There’s actually more analysis that can be done on this, maybe I’ll get around to that after I clean up my code base a little. There’s some spaghetti there at the moment.

Anyway, that’s Bad Statistics -1.
Statistics without a significance.

Thank you for reading
Sainath